(Reuters) – Prices of rough diamonds are expected to rise this year after a turbulent 2011, driven by recovering consumer demand in the United States and a robust appetite for the gems in Asia, the head of the World Diamond Council (WDC) told Reuters on Monday.

Diamonds had a rollercoaster 2011, with a bumper first half followed by a steep drop in prices as markets unraveled over the summer months, despite the dearth of new mines, low inventories and Asia’s growing demand.

“Prices have been stabilizing and (are heading) towards going up again. Outlook seems to be bullish,” the WDC President Eli Izhakoff said in an interview on the sidelines of the annual meeting of the council, which represents diamond manufacturing and trading companies, held this year in northern Italy.

“I think the prices will end the year …higher,” Izhakoff said. He declined to give a more precise forecast.

Demand in the U.S., the world’s biggest consumer of polished diamonds, has been strong so far this year as the world’s biggest economy shows signs of recovery. Forecasts for demand in India and China are also very positive, Izhakoff said.

Asia’s growing appetite for diamonds has helped the sector offset weaker patches elsewhere and is key to several market debuts in the pipeline, not least the Hong Kong initial public offering of London-based high end jeweler Graff Diamonds. Graff will launch its $1 billion float this month.

Entrepreneur Beny Steinmetz’s Octea diamond operations, which include the Koidu mine in Sierra Leone, could brave stock markets later this year, most likely in Hong Kong to tap China’s love of luxury.

But Izhakoff said a question mark hung over demand in Europe, which is struggling to rein in the unfolding euro zone sovereign debt crisis. He added consumer demand in Europe was largely driven by tourists from Asia and eastern Europe while local demand is hit by austerity measures in many countries.

SECOND HALF OUTLOOK

The market expects more stable rough diamond prices in 2012, with an improvement in the second half after a slow start due to inventories built up by buyers when prices weakened.

“Our view is that, provided the leading producers are restrained in what they offer for sale and in the level of their prices, the second half of the year should see further improvement,” RBC Capital Markets said in a note on May 11.

“Looking through to 2013 and beyond we are more optimistic, though the economic turmoil in Europe will continue to weigh on sentiment,” the RBC capital Markets analysts wrote.

Diamond demand is expected to exceed supplies this year, giving a fundamental support to prices, but announced exits of major mining companies from diamond operations is unlikely to reduce supply of rough diamonds to the market, Izhakoff said.

Mining giants Rio Tinto (RIO.L) and BHP Billiton (BLT.L) have said they could sell their diamond units, putting, between them, four major diamond operations on the block – a huge number in an industry that gets most of its production from 20 or so mines, and where no large discovery has been made in 15 years.

Some analysts have said such exits could lead to a reduction of investment in diamond mining and hence to a reduction in supplies. But Izhakoff said he would expect any possible buyer of the mines to have enough funds to pump into production and keep supplies steady.

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Brazil’s Eike Fuhrken Batista is the world of mining’s richest man and has been on a roll so far this year, increasing his wealth by a third according to Bloomberg data.

But he took a few blows to the body on Tuesday.

After his oil and gas firm OGX – one of five public companies under Batista’s control – disappointed with reserve figures of only 110 million barrels at an offshore well called Tubarão-Azul or Blue Shark the company was beaten down 7.8%.

That decline and a generally bad day on the world’s stock markets meant $1,023,200,000 disappeared from Batista’s personal fortune on Tuesday.

Batista is now down to his last $30 billion and is in danger of dropping out of the top 10 if commodity stocks continue to slide. (The three who could catch Batista  – Wal-Mart’s Walton siblings  – only lost $100 million on Tuesday.)

A much more encouraging find on land by another Batista business could not reverse the steep declines.

CCX, Batista’s coal unit, also announced today that it discovered a 672 million tonnes reserve, making it the fifth largest coal deposit in the world, at San Juan in Colombia.

CCX is being spun off and will list separately on the Sao Paulo exchange on May 25.

Perhaps having a sixth publicly traded entity will help Batista cobble together another billion or so.

Click here for a profile of Batista >>

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CHEVRON remains bullish on the outlook for conventional liquefied natural gas prices after signing a non-binding heads of agreement with the Japanese utility Tohoku to sell gas from its $US29 billion Wheatstone development near Onslow in Western Australia.

Chevron Australia’s managing director, Roy Krzywosinski, said the deal to sell Tohoku 1 million tonnes a year over 20 years was in line with traditional pricing for conventional LNG, adding ”we have not seen a degradation in prices”.

Mr Krzywosinski questioned whether low Henry Hub gas prices in the US, caused by a glut of shale gas, were sustainable and said while it was likely that LNG exports from North America would grow, he did not expect they would be ”of a volume that will have a material impact on what we believe will be the LNG demand coming out of the Asia-Pacific region”.

He said the Wheatstone project now under construction and the first LNG hub in Australia to accept third-party gas, was off to ”a flying start” and Chevron expected further gas discoveries would be made in the Carnarvon Basin.

”We estimate there is between 25 and 35 trillion cubic feet of gas of what we would call uncommitted or yet to be discovered gas in the Carnarvon Basin and much of that gas … will need a home, so we think the hub concept is going to be the right concept to support this gas.”

After yesterday’s deal, struck with partners Apache Energy and Kuwait Foreign Petroleum Exploration Company, Chevron has long-term contracts over 80 per cent of its gas to come from the two-train Wheatstone project. It expects to expand it, potentially up to 25 million tonnes a year.

Chevron is also developing the giant three-train, 15 million tonnes a year Gorgon LNG project at Barrow Island, where it is sticking to its $US43 billion budget and target of first LNG by 2014. The project – Australia’s largest – is 40 per cent complete. Mr Kryzwosinski said front end engineering and design on a $US10 billion-plus fourth train would begin later this year, before a final investment decision planned for next year.

Gorgon is running two years ahead of Wheatstone, which Mr Krzywosinski said was a ”sweet spot” offering significant synergies in terms of purchasing power and equipment from running the two projects as a portfolio.

Chevron is a partner in the Woodside-operated Browse project, where design work is under way on the controversial $US35 billion plan to build an LNG hub on the Kimberley coast. Chevron was supporting the design work, but Mr Krzywosinski said Browse ”does have a lot of challenges – technically, environmentally and from a heritage perspective”.

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G & J Exporters hit by RBI Directive Already affected by the rising value of the rupee and slow demand from key markets like US and Europe, gem and jewellery exporters were further hit by the RBI’s directive to convert 50 per cent of foreign currency holdings in all types of Exchange Earner’s Foreign Currency (EEFC) accounts in to rupees.

The RBI move is part of its attempt to stabilise the rupee which dipped to a new low of 53.82 against the dollar this week, and will release an estimated $2.5 bn worth of foreign currency into the market.

While the RBI’s objective cannot be faulted, its methodology can be, particularly the lack of a differential approach towards the foreign currency balances held by different sectors.

Clearly industries dealing in commodities, like gems and jewellery, have different needs from sectors like IT that earn dollars through selling services overseas. Unlike the latter, the former need foreign currency to import fresh raw materials on a regular basis. This is all the more marked for g & j, since virtually all the raw materials are purchased overseas, and value addition is based on the skills of the people involved in the trade.

The exact modalities of ensuring payment flexibility for such sectors can be worked out, but a starting point could be the FIEO proposal, where the limit for sectors like gems and jewellery could be higher than the general limit, say 75 per cent as against 50 per cent for others.

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Independent Valuation of Gahcho Kué Diamonds

Actual Price per Carat $185 – up 38%
Modeled Price per Carat $122 – up 41%

(All values are in US Dollars)

Toronto and New York, May 5, 2011 – Mountain Province Diamonds Inc. (“Mountain Province”, the “Company”) (TSX: MPV, NY-AMEX: MDM) today announced the results of an updated independent valuation of the diamonds recovered from the Gahcho Kué Project. The valuation was conducted by WWW International Diamond Consultants Ltd. and took place at the London offices of the Diamond Trading Company in early April, 2011. All diamond values presented below are based on the WWW Price Book as at April 11, 2011.

Importantly, for the first time, the Gahcho Kué diamonds were grouped into larger parcels, each parcel representing diamonds from the Hearne, Tuzo and the separate lobes of the 5034 kimberlite. In the opinion of WWW, grouping of the diamonds into larger parcels increased the accuracy of the diamond valuation.

Patrick Evans, Mountain Province President and CEO, said: “The results of this independent diamond valuation reflect the strong performance of rough diamond prices since the previous valuation conducted on April 2010. Based on the analysis of leading diamond producers and analysts, the global diamond industry will experience peak diamond supply during 2011, with burgeoning demand – particularly from the robust Chinese and Indian markets – outstripping mine supply. There is a strong probability that rough diamond prices will continue to experience strong double digit increases as production from aging mines decrease and new mine supply falls short of growing demand. As the world’s largest and richest diamond development project, Gahcho Kué is well placed to enjoy excellent diamond price support as it prepares for production”.

In their report to Mountain Province, WWW stated: “The most valuable stone is in the Tuzo sample. This 25.13 carat stone is the largest stone in all of the bulk samples. The stone is an octahedron of H/I colour which WWW valued at $20,000 per carat giving a total value of $502,600″.

WWW added: “The stone with the highest value per carat sample is a 9.90 carat stone in the 5034 C/E sample. This is a makeable stone of high colour (D/E) which WWW valued at $24,000 per carat giving a total value of $237,600″.

Commenting further, Mr. Evans said: “Experience shows that during the mining phase larger populations of large, high value diamonds are commonly recovered, which has the potential to improve modeled diamond revenues. Besides the high-value 25.13 and 9.9 carat diamonds referred to above, several other large high-value diamonds of gem quality have been recovered from Gahcho Kué, including 7.0 carat, 6.6 carat and 5.9 carat diamonds from the 5034 kimberlite and 8.7 carat, 6.4 carat and 4.9 carat diamonds from the Hearne kimberlite. The presence of coarser diamonds is an important driver of overall diamond value at Gahcho Kué.”

Table 2 below presents models of the average price per carat (US$/carat) for each kimberlite. The modeled price per carat is determined using statistical methods to estimate the average value of diamonds that will be recovered from potential future production from Gahcho Kué.

For mine feasibility studies WWW recommends using the base case models for defining the resources and reserves. The “high” and “low” models are included for sensitivity analysis.

The WWW averaged modeled price per carat for the Gahcho Kué kimberlites is $122, which represents a 41 percent increase over the WWW 2010 average price. The WWW models use size distribution models (carats per size class) developed by De Beers.

Mr. Evans added: “The 2010 independent definitive feasibility study, under which the revenue assumption was based on the mean average of the April 2010 WWW and De Beers modeled diamond prices, reported a 33.9 percent IRR excluding sunk costs. Further, sensitivity analysis shows that a 10 percent increase in modeled diamond prices results in an approximate 3 percent increase in the project IRR. Accordingly, the 41 percent increase in the modeled price over the past year would result in an approximate 12 percent increase in the project IRR.”

Qualified Person

This news release has been prepared under the supervision of Carl G. Verley, P.Geo., who serves as the qualified person under National Instrument 43-101.

Forward-Looking Statements

This news release may contain forward-looking statements, within the meaning of the “safe-harbor” provision of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, regarding the Company’s business or financial condition. Actual results could differ materially from those described in this news release as a result of numerous factors, some of which are outside the control of the Company.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION, PLEASE CONTACT:

Mountain Province Diamonds Inc.
Patrick Evans, President and CEO
Tel: 416-670-5114
401 Bay Street, Suite 2700
Toronto, Ontario M5H 2Y4
Phone: (416) 361-3562
Fax: (416) 603-8565
www.mountainprovince.com
E-mail: info@mountainprovince.com

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Finding diamonds in Canada was, for many years, little more than a prospector’s hope. But with the discovery of diamonds in Nunavut in the early nineties, this hope became a reality that soon led to active exploration for the elusive gem throughout the country – specifically, on the Canadian Shield.

Canada became a diamond producer in October 1998, when the Ekati diamond mine opened about 300 kilometres northeast of Yellowknife. By April 1999, the mine had produced one million carats. And by 2003, the country became the world’s third largest diamond producer on a value basis, after Botswana and Russia.

Today, diamond exploration and discovery is undergoing a renaissance in Canada’s north that rivals the first wave of successful exploration. Most of the efforts are converging in Nunavut, the largest and newest territory of Canada.

Although the Canadian northern territories are not the easiest places in which to live and work, there are a number of junior and senior companies operating in these areas.  These companies have to deal with harsh climates, limited infrastructure and a very fragile environment. But as demand for minerals, particularly diamonds, continues to grow, both new and established operators are taking a more active interest in the region.

Peregrine Diamonds Ltd. is one of the protagonists of the new success story. The company revitalized the diamond exploration scene last year, by reporting a remarkable discovery of three major outcropping diamond-bearing kimberlites at its Chidliak property on Baffin Island.

Chidliak, located 150 km northwest of Iqaluit, the capital of Nunavut and the company’s earlier stage Nanuq project, located 300 kilometres north of Rankin Inlet in Nunavut, are both textbook cases of grassroots or greenfields exploration low-budget programs that were taking place while attention was focused primarily on DO-27.

The Chidliak program began in 2005, when BHP Billiton approached Peregrine with an offer to jointly explore southern Baffin Island. “The agreement was that, together, we would undertake a reconnaissance program that covered roughly the southern third of Baffin Island. We would fund it equally and then Peregrine would take the data and run with it,” says Peregrine President, Brooke Clements.

After the programs’ first year, during which the most promising properties were acquired, the funding responsibility fell to Peregrine alone, but BHP retained back-in rights.

Despite being discovered a year earlier than Chidliak, Nanuq is currently at about the same stage, for two reasons. Three kimberlite pipes have been found on each site, but those at Nanuq, while encouraging, do not offer the promising diamond counts seen in kimberlites tested at Chidliak. Future exploration work at Nanuq will be focusing on finding new pipes. Meanwhile, the work at Chidliak will be split between searching out new pipes and continuing to estimate the value of the one already known to hold diamonds.

A bit of luck also favoured Chidliak. “Usually, kimberlites are covered by soil and aren’t visible from the surface,” explains Clements. “But in the case of Chidliak, the sampling crew went to three promising sites and found not just indications of kimberlites, but outcroppings of the pipes themselves exposed on the surface. We were fortunate because we kind of jumped a year ahead of the normal sequence. Without drilling a single hole, we know we have diamonds and kimberlites with significant tonnage potential on the property,” he said of the significance of the outcroppings.

Clements describes the results as “exceptional,” and not just because the coarse diamond size distribution indicates potential for large commercialization of diamonds. Unlike most diamond-bearing kimberlites in northern Canada, which typically occur under lakes or are buried by overburden, the Chidliak kimberlites outcrop on the surface..

“It’s still early days but we’re very excited by the potential as we’ve identified more than 65 geophysical anomalies within the property,” says Clements.

Key Players

Until recently, Tahera Diamond Corporation was the best known name in Nunavut’s diamond scene. The company runs Jericho Diamond Mine, Canada’s third diamond mine and Nunavut’s first, located about 400 km (249 mi) northeast of Yellowknife, Northwest Territories.

Two and a half years after that high-profile startup, Tahera has abruptly ended production at the Jericho mine, forcing Prime Minister Stephen Harper and his government to take over.

Deloitte and Touche has since been appointed as receiver and contracted to undertake care and maintenance at the mine.

It is doubtful that a new owner will soon be found for Jericho.

Other companies currently exploring for diamonds in Nunavut are Indicator Minerals (Nanuq North, in a join venture with Peregrine Diamonds), Shear Minerals (Churchill), Diamonds North Resources (Amaruk) and Stornoway Diamonds (Aviat).

Stornoway, a Vancouver-based exploration company, is the dominant diamond explorer in eastern Nunavut and it has property stretching from the northern tip of the Melville Peninsula to Rankin Inlet on the western shore of Hudson Bay.

Stornoway shares interest in the Aviat property with BHP Billiton – which owns the Ekati mine in the Northwest Territories – and the Hunter Exploration Group. Two of Stornoway’s holdings, Churchill and Quilalugaq, are in the advanced exploration stage.

Governmental Support

To maintain Nunavut’s position as a jurisdiction of choice for mineral investment, the local Government developed a strategy entitled “Parnautit: The Nunavut Mineral Exploration & Mining,” which provides a framework of policies and actions to encourage mineral discovery and development. Released in March 2007, the goal of Parnautit is to create the conditions for a “strong and sustainable minerals industry that contributes to a high and sustainable quality of life for all Nunavummiut.” The plan addresses Nunavut’s regulatory and taxation regimes, workforce training, infrastructure development and environmental baseline availability.

Peter Taptuna, Nunavut’s Deputy Premier and Minister Responsible for Mines, explains that Nunavut also offers a Development Partnership Agreement (DPA) program that was introduced in 2006 as a means of extending the territorial off-road fuel tax credit (rebate) to developing and producing mines. Through these DPAs, Nunavut’s Government and mine operators work cooperatively in areas such as education and training, socioeconomic monitoring and mitigation, as well as in infrastructure development. As the physical and economic circumstances of no two mines are alike, so too each DPA should reflect the unique and shared needs of the mine operator and the local population. Proponents entering the regulatory phase are encouraged to begin negotiations on a Development Partnership Agreement for their projects.

For now, the reality of the diamond industry is much like the weather conditions in Nunavut- harsh. In spite of this, the Canadian industry is up to the challenge. While current prices, logistical challenges, inclement weather, personnel shortages and training needs remain concerns, all signs point to Nunavut seeing growth in mining operations in the near future, just in time to offer its diamonds to an eager market.

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GRAINCORP shares jumped on speculation it may become the next takeover target after weekend reports that commodities giant Glencore is bidding about $5.2 billion for Canadian rival Viterra.

Shares of Graincorp rose as much as 70 cents, or 8.6 per cent, to $8.80 before easing back to $8.49 in recent trading.

RBS Morgans agribusiness analyst Belinda Moore said continuing consolidation in the global grains sector “should focus investor’s minds around what Graincorp is worth under a takeover scenario.

“Given the scale and strategic nature of GNC’s assets and the fact that it is the last remaining significant grain company capable of being taken over in Australia, we expect a number of parties could also be interested in Graincorp at some point in the future.”

London’s Sunday Telegraph reported that Glencore, currently pursuing a $US90 billion merger with diversified miner Xstrata plc, was bidding for Viterra, which on Friday (Canadian time) confirmed it had received an expression of interest from a third party.

Viterra bought Australia’s ABB Grain in 2009 for about $1.6 billion.

Viterra’s Australian-listed shares shot up $2.67, or 26 per cent today, to $13.02. Viterra’s Canadian-listed shares rose 24 per cent on Friday to close at $C13.58, giving the company a market cap of $C5.05 billion.

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Cargill may also make a tilt at Viterra, according to Bloomberg.

RBS’s Ms Moore said past North American agribusiness takeover deals were priced on average at a 1o times earnings multiple – the enterprise value over the earnings before interest tax depreciation and amortisation – while previous takeover multiples for Australian agribusinesses were about nine times earnings.

On those multiples, Ms Moore estimated Graincorp could be worth between $14.75 – $16.56 a share, using forecast earnings for 2011-12.

The move on Viterra comes as Canada prepares to deregulate grain marketing in August, with the Canadian Wheat Board set to lose its monopoly.

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If rising oil prices were not enough, investors now have to contend with a bigger risk: a repeat of the 2007-08 spike in food prices.

Prices of commodities ranging from soyabeans and corn to rapeseed and feeder cattle are soaring as bad weather and strong demand in China combine to tighten supplies and trigger food inflation fears.

The rise in prices of these crops could be sustained, warn industry experts. The market is “not going to see food inflation abating in the next 18 months, to two years,” says Richard Feltes, vice-president at broker RJ O’Brien in Chicago.

Yet the surge is unlikely to mirror that of the 2007-08 spike. The cost of wheat and rice, the two most important agricultural commodities for global food security because of their status as a staple for billions of people in southern Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, remains stable thanks in large part to bumper crops over the past few years.

The cost of sugar, an important source of calories in India and other emerging countries, is also down from previous highs.

Instead, the main concern centres on the price of oilseeds, such as soyabeans, rapeseed and canola, and corn.

Oilseeds are not only a source of edible oil for coking and processed food but also the main source of protein-rich feed meal used to fatten cows, sheep, pigs and poultry. Corn is also a crucial source of feed meal. The rise in feed is already pushing up meat costs worldwide, analysts say.

Soyabean prices have risen more than 20 per cent since the start of the year and hit a peak of $15.09 a bushel on Friday, the highest in four years. Commodities traders say they are likely to rise to $16-$17 a bushel, targeting the all-time high of $16.63 set in the summer of 2008. “I am very bullish,” says a senior executive with a leading commodities trading house.

Canola prices hit C$665.90 a tonne last week, their highest since July 2008 and only a fraction below the all-time high set during the 2007-08 food crisis. And rapeseed prices in Europe, at €514 per tonne, are less than 2 per cent below the 2008 peak.

Soya production is sharply down in the Latin American agricultural belt of Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay after the La Niña weather phenomenon exposed fields to hot, dry weather, hurting yields. The output drop in the region, which accounts for more than half the world’s exports of the commodity, comes as Chinese imports have increased more than 20 per cent in the first quarter.

Chris Gadd, analyst at Macquarie, says Chinese buyers could afford high dollar-denominated prices thanks to a fall in freight rates and a stronger renminbi.

Moreover, Chinese soya production has dropped as farmers have opted to sow more acres with corn, which is fetching record prices in China.

Commodities traders are more restrained about the outlook for corn prices, but they warn that costs are likely to remain at historically high levels in spite of an expected surge in US production due to unusually high Chinese demand.

Beijing has only been an occasional importer of corn over the past 50 years, with significant overseas purchases over three short periods: 1973-75, 1978-83 and 1994-96. Those sporadic imports have become more common and traders expect China in the 2011-12 and 2012-13 crop season to make its biggest purchases of corn over a two-year period since records began in the 1960s.

Abdolreza Abbassian, senior grains economist at the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation in Rome, anticipates Beijing will buy between 8m and 10m tonnes over the two seasons.

In China, the cost of corn hit an all-time high in March of Rmb2,497 per tonne, up roughly 10 per cent from the beginning of the year, after Beijing said that its inventories were lower than thought. Since then, agricultural traders say Sinograin, the state-owned trading house which manages the state grain reserves, has been in the market buying corn to replenish its strategic stockpile.

Corn prices rose on Monday to $6.58¾ a bushel yesterday after the US government last week said traders had concluded their biggest single-day corn deals since 1991. The market is assuming that the corn is heading to China. During the 2007-08 food crisis, corn rose to $7.65 a bushel.

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