Oil demand is falling for the first time since the 2008-09 global financial crisis as a result of a mild winter, high crude prices and the European economic crisis, according to fresh estimates from the International Energy Agency.

The industrialised nations’ watchdog said oil demand dropped by 300,000 barrels a day in the final quarter of 2011. Such a fall is rare: over the last decade, oil demand has posted drops only in the financial crisis of mid-2008 to mid-2009.

The IEA revised down its outlook for growth in 2012 to 1.1m b/d from 1.3m b/d amid signs of weakness in the world economy.

It also warned of the geopolitical risk posed to oil markets by rising tensions with Iran.

Global oil demand in 2011 was 89.5m b/d, the IEA said.

David Fyfe, head of the IEA’s oil industry and markets division, said the year-on-year fall in demand was largely due to the exceptionally cold winter of 2010-11 compared to this winter’s milder temperatures. But it was still surprising.

“Even in the 2008-9 crisis we only had a couple of quarters of absolute contraction, so it is quite rare,” he said. “We’re flagging that there are clearly downside risks to the global economy and to oil demand.”

The IEA’s latest monthly oil market report comes against the backdrop of a looming showdown between Iran and the west over Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.

Oil prices jumped $4-$5 a barrel at the new year as the European Union prepared to impose a ban on Iranian oil imports and Tehran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial conduit for oil exports from the Gulf.

The agency characterised the oil market as finely balanced between fears of supply disruptions due to the coming Iranian embargo and concerns about an economic slowdown that will weaken demand for oil.

The price of crude has been relatively stable since last spring within a range of $100 to $120 a barrel. But the IEA said the stability was “more apparent than real.”

It said markets were caught between a “rock” – the growing likelihood of a sharp economic slowdown, or even outright recession, in 2012 – and a “hard place” – possible geopolitical turmoil triggered by the west’s face-off with Iran.

“That is scarcely a source of comfort,” the report said.

Oil markets in Europe and Asia, hit badly last year by the loss of Libyan supply, worry that sanctions against Iran will seriously affect the availability of crude.

The leaders of Japan, China and South Korea have been seeking assurances from Middle Eastern producers like Saudi Arabia that they can make up any shortfall.

Europe, which imports about 600,000 b/d of Iranian crude, is also on the hunt for replacement supplies.

These concerns come at a time of tightness in physical oil markets.

Last year, non-Opec supply grew by only 50,000 barrels a day, the third lowest performance in the last decade – largely due to a series of unscheduled disruptions in places like the North Sea, Canada and China. That was compounded by the unrest in Libya, which knocked out its exports.

While members of the Opec cartel, especially Saudi Arabia, increased production to compensate, and the IEA released emergency stocks, this was not enough to make up for the Libyan shortfall.

The IEA said crude stock levels in industrialised countries remain below the five-year average for a fifth consecutive month.

European refiners faced a “difficult task” in finding substitutes for Iranian supply, and some market dislocation was inevitable, the agency warned.

But the gradual phase-in of any EU import ban and the “considerable latitude in implementation” built into the US sanctions “will serve to minimise unwanted market disruptions,” it added.

Sourced & published by Henry Sapiecha

CONGA GOLD PROJECT IN PERU IN STALL MODE BUT HOPEFUL TO PROCEED

The Wall Street Journal reports Peru on Friday announced a programme of social and infrastructure investments in its poor Cajamarca region aimed at winning over local protesters who have brought to halt Newmont Mining’s $4.8 billion Conga project over environmental concerns.

Protestors, led by Cajamarca’s Maoist governor Gregorio Santos, say Conga will destroy the environment by transforming four high Andean lakes into reservoirs for mining operations.

In December the government was forced to declare a state of emergency after boulders were used to block exits from the regional capital of more than 200,000 inhabitants, schools, hospitals and business were closed and dozens injured in clashes with police.

The Wall Street Journal reports Peru’s new Prime Minister, Oscar Valdés, who was elevated to the position after a cabinet shake-up prompted by the Conga crisis said late Thursday that he thought work on the project which was stopped in November could restart by March:

On Friday, René Cornejo Diaz, the housing minister, was sent to Cajamarca to tout the federal government’s program to invest 4.3 billion soles, about $1.6 billion, in infrastructure and expanded antipoverty programs in Cajamarca.

But Cajamarca leaders, including the governor, Gregorio Santos, didn’t seem likely to be swayed by government largess. “The position of the regional government is clear, Conga is not going ahead,” Máximo Léon, a top adviser to Mr. Santos, said in a telephone interview.

Conga has gold deposits worth about $15 billion at current prices and would be the biggest investment ever in Peru mining.

Conga has turned into a political nightmare for President Ollanta Humala who took office last year and who has on many occasions publicly backed the project. The bitter dispute is seen as a test case for scores of conflicts triggered by mining investments in the country.

At least 200 communities nationwide in Peru have organized to stop mining or oil projects, usually over environmental concerns or to demand direct economic benefits in rural towns.

Sourced & published by Henry Sapiecha

As crowds shouted and pushed for the latest iPhone in Beijing on Friday, a glitzy mall across the street was bathed in silence, with just a handful of shoppers hunting for bargains.

The frenzy at the Apple store underscored the rise of the Chinese consumer, a development that analysts say is needed to support the global economy and make China’s growth more sustainable.

But the empty SOHO complex cast a different light on what is happening in the world’s second-largest economy: consumption is rising, but not nearly as fast as vast shopping centres are being built.

A boom in the number of malls without a matching increase in actual shopping gets to the heart of what analysts see as the fundamental problem of the Chinese economy: too much investment, too little consumption.

“There was an exponential two or three years where record numbers of malls were built around the country,” said Frank Marriott, senior director for Asia at property consultant Savills. “It has to take a bit of a breather.”

Within a half-hour walk from Beijing’s fashionable Sanlitun district, eight shopping complexes have opened in recent years. While one mall called the Village – home to the Apple store that was pelted with eggs on Friday – is bustling, many of the others are visibly struggling.

At the SOHO mall, shuttered stores in its six retail buildings drastically outnumber the open ones. One building was entirely padlocked, while the only activity in another was a five-day garage sale of discount clothes.

“We came here just because one of the restaurants was recommended. We wouldn’t actually shop here when there’s so many good stores (in the Village) across the street,” said He Tian, a university student, walking with his girlfriend.

When China announces its 2011 growth rate on Tuesday, the figure is expected to be about 9 per cent as the country continues its three-decade-long boom.

It might also reveal that China has finally reached a turning point, with consumption becoming the biggest driver of growth. The problem is that this change does not appear to be happening quickly enough.

Household consumption has fallen over the past decade to just over a third of GDP, according to official data which even if understated is exceptionally low for a major economy in peacetime. Meanwhile, investment has soared to 48.6 per cent of GDP, which economists say marks an unhealthy dependence on capital spending.

“Hopefully we have started to see the beginning of improvement, but the imbalance problem is still very serious in China,” said Huang Yiping, an economist with Barclays Capital.

With much of Chinese investment concentrated in property, fears have mounted about the waste and the potential for bad debts. Concerns have focused on the vacant apartments that can be found throughout China, but empty shopping malls are a very public symptom of the same disease.

A little south of SOHO, Beijing’s cavernous new Fortune Mall echoed with the sounds of gunfire – a bored retailer was playing a loud video game during what was supposed to be the peak shopping period a week before China’s new year festival.

On the second floor, a lady in a red parka paced outside one of the several stores whose windows had been papered over. “They sold jade here. I was their part-time accountant. But they seem to have left and didn’t even tell me,” she said.

Amid the competition, one of Sanlitun’s mainstays, the Pacific Department Store, which was seen as ancient after its 10 years, closed its doors late last year.

Tianyi, a low-end mall in downtown Beijing, gave further evidence of a saturated marketplace. It was full of shoppers, but not quite as packed as in the past, according to store workers.

“We used to need two people, but now I can look after it myself and I have little to do,” said Mr Zhang, standing at a counter stacked with bathroom accessories.

The glut of retail space in Beijing is part of a broader trend. Guo Zengli, president of the Mall China Information Centre, said last year that the number of shopping centres nationwide would increase 893 per cent between 2001 and 2015.

The developers are hoping that a new generation of Chinese consumers will spend far more, emboldened by rising wages and government efforts to build up the social security system. To a certain extent, they are correct.

“Whatever money I make, I spend …?we don’t have to worry about saving for old age like our parents,” said Jiang Qiong, 24, manager of a jewellery shop in Tianyi.

With shoppers like Ms Jiang, Chinese retail sales have risen about 17 per cent annually for the past couple of years. The growth is impressive – but hardly enough to fill the 760 shopping centres that Mr Guo forecast will open across China over the next three years.

Sourced & published by Henry Sapiecha

TIN & TUNGSTEN MINING IN ENGLAND BY WOLF MINERALS

PLANS by ASX-listed Wolf Minerals to become a tungsten and tin producer from its Hemerdon project in south-west England have attracted a rare demonstration of government support for the jobs and wealth creation ability of mining projects.

Wolf announced last week that the support came directly from Lord Green of Hurstpierpoint, the British Minister of State for Trade and Investment, following Wolf receiving planning consents for the Devon development.

In a letter to the company, Lord Green said Hemerdon was an important project to the community in terms of jobs and wealth creation, and to the British and wider European Union in securing supplies of tungsten.

”I am aware that tungsten ranks highly in both the British Geological Society and EU’s critical raw materials lists and that it has unique properties that are impossible to replace in certain specialised industrial applications,” the former HSBC chairman said.

The British Geological Survey in September listed tungsten as one of the top five strategically important metals.

Wolf is now working on securing $80 million in debt funding for the project, the development of which would serve to ease the grip China has on global supplies of tungsten. More than 80 per cent of global supply comes from China, which has curbed exports of the ”strategic” metal.

Tungsten prices rose by more than 30 per cent last year and are now more than eight times their level before taking off in 2003 in response to limited non-Chinese mine supplies at a time of rising consumption.

SAUDI ARABIA RAISES PRODUCTION WITH LITTLE VARIANCE IN PRICE EFFECT

Saudi Arabia is by far the world’s largest oil exporter. Thus, when it raises its production, oil prices usually fall. Yet, when Ali Naimi, Saudi oil minister, said last week Riyadh was pumping more than 10m barrels a day, prices barely moved a few cents.

Oil traders were in disbelief at the number. The International Energy Agency estimated that in October the kingdom pumped 9.45m barrels a day and Opec itself put Saudi production at 9.47 b/d in the same month. The level of production that Mr Naimi stated suggested a huge increase, in only a few weeks. Moreover, the 10m b/d is a psychological barrier – a level the kingdom has not reached since the aftermath of the second oil crisis in 1979.

The level of Saudi oil production has triggered a heated debate among oil traders, analysts and government officials.

The discussion is twofold: on the one hand, about the level itself; on the other, about why it has boosted its output at a time when many are betting that oil demand growth is slowing down, not accelerating.

The discussion is critical to understand the direction of oil prices in 2012.

The 10m b/d figure is controversial in the market.

Some oil traders do not believe the number at all. Two of the largest top-five independent oil trading houses have told me that their own numbers suggest a much lower production level. The traders largely dismiss the 10m b/d figure as a bargaining tactic ahead of the Opec meeting on Wednesday.

Yet, other sources suggest that Saudi Arabia has indeed boosted production sharply over the past few weeks, potentially towards the 10m b/d mark.

The Lloyd’s List Intelligence Apex database, which tracks tankers around the world, puts Saudi Arabia’s oil exports at nearly 7.4m b/d. Add local demand of about 2.7m b/d and you get to the 10m b/d. In addition, Lloyd’s List Intelligence estimates suggest that Riyadh boosted month-on-month exports sharply, from 6.7m b/d in October to 7.4m b/d in November. Other tanker trackers have yet to publish their numbers, but the talk in the market is that they also have witnessed a big increase in tankers sailing from Saudi oil export terminals.

So if the numbers are right – a big if for many traders – what do they say about the health of the global oil market?

The International Energy Agency puts global oil demand this quarter at 91.4m b/d, up from 90.9m b/d from the previous quarter due to the onset of the Northern hemisphere winter and the surge in heating demand. The seasonal increase in demand could well explain an output hike.

But I think there is more. China’s oil demand, which only a month ago appeared to be slowing down to a halt, could be accelerating in reality. Chinese refiners processed a record amount of crude oil in November to offset diesel shortages and oil imports surged last month to the second-highest monthly volume on record, hitting 5.52m b/d, just short of an all-time high of 5.67m b/d in September 2010, according to estimates by Thomson Reuters based on official Chinese data.

The bottom line is that Saudi Arabia could very well be telling a lot of naysayers and sceptics in the market that global crude oil demand is a lot healthier than many assume.

Sourced & published by Henry Sapiecha